During the night session, SHFE tin prices opened slightly lower, still fluctuating around the 280,000 mark. [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on October 15, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2511) opened slightly lower in the night session and continued to fluctuate rangebound, trading around the 280,000-yuan mark, and closed at 280,000 yuan/mt, down 0.76% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) According to CNBC, Oracle's (ORCL.N) cloud infrastructure division announced on Tuesday that it will deploy 50,000 AMD (AMD.O) artificial intelligence chips starting in H2 2026. This move shows that cloud computing companies are increasingly adopting AMD's GPUs as an alternative to Nvidia's dominant AI chip market. "We believe customers will be very proactive in adopting AMD's products, especially in the field of AI inference," said Karan Batta, Senior Vice President of Oracle Cloud Infrastructure. Oracle will use AMD's Instinct MI450 chips released earlier this year. This is AMD's first AI chip that can be assembled into a rack-level system, allowing 72 chips to work together to support the creation and deployment of the most advanced AI algorithms. (2) Data from the China Power Battery Industry Alliance in September showed that China's power and other battery sales reached 146.5 Gwh, up 9.0% MoM and 42.2% YoY. Among them, power battery sales were 110.5 Gwh, accounting for 75.5% of total sales, up 11.8% MoM and 44.4% YoY; other battery sales were 36.0 Gwh, accounting for 24.5% of total sales, up 1.0% MoM and 36.1% YoY. From January to September, China's cumulative power and other battery sales reached 1,067.2 Gwh, up 55.8% YoY. Among them, cumulative power battery sales were 786 Gwh, accounting for 73.7% of total sales, up 48.9% YoY; cumulative other battery sales were 281.1 Gwh, accounting for 26.3% of total sales, up 78.9% YoY. (3) The Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Informatization recently issued the "Shanghai Smart Terminal Industry High-Quality Development Action Plan (2026-2027)", proposing that by 2027, Shanghai's smart terminal industry will continue to grow stronger, with the overall scale exceeding 300 billion yuan, creating more than three consumer-grade terminal brands with global influence, cultivating two leading enterprises, and achieving three "10 million unit" scales, namely, artificial intelligence computers, artificial intelligence phones, and artificial intelligence new terminals each reaching over 10 million units.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply in major production areas such as Yunnan is generally tightening, and some smelters maintained shutdowns for maintenance in October (Bullish★). (2) Demand side: Due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets, orders have decreased significantly. Downstream procurement remained cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption. The boost from emerging sectors was limited: although the increase in AI computing power and the growth in PV installations drove some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remains small and insufficient to fill the gap left by declining consumption in traditional sectors.

Spot market: Trading in the spot market remained sluggish. Downstream enterprises considered the current price exceeding 280,000 yuan per mt still too high, resulting in weak purchase willingness. Apart from essential production needs, most enterprises chose to continue waiting on the sidelines for more suitable entry opportunities. Persistently sluggish demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors also suppressed overall tin procurement demand.

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